St. John's or Northern Iowa? How to pick 5 vs 12 matchup in 2026 March Madness bracket
· Yahoo Sports
St. John's or Northern Iowa? How to pick 5 vs 12 matchup in 2026 March Madness bracket originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
Visit truewildgame.com for more information.
St. John's isn't seeded as high as it was last season, but there is a case to be made that Rick Pitino's team is more prepared for this stage than it was a year ago.
After bowing out against John Calipari and Arkansas in the second round last year, St. John's could have another star-studded matchup with Bill Self and Kansas at the same point in their tournament run this time around. Northern Iowa would like to make sure that game never comes to be.
The defensive-minded Panthers, fresh off a Missouri Valley Conference Tournament title with four wins in four days, will be the first to take aim at St. John's in hopes of pulling a classic 12-5 upset and throwing the East Region into chaos.
Can Northern Iowa knock off the Big East champions? Here's what you need to know to choose between St. John's and Northern Iowa in your March Madness bracket.
MARCH MADNESS HQ: Live NCAA bracket | Full TV schedule | Printable bracket
St. John's vs. Northern Iowa odds
St. John's opens as a double-digit favorite against Northern Iowa, according to DraftKings odds. The Red Storm are coming off a Big East Tournament title, while Northern Iowa rallied from the 6-seed in the Missouri Valley Conference to the conference's automatic bid.
Here are the odds, TV info and location for the 5-12 matchup.
- Odds: St. John's -11.5
- Date: Friday, March 20
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Arena: Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA
STREAM:Watch St. John's vs. Northern Iowa live with Fubo (free trial)
St. John’s (28-6, 18-2 in Big East)
St. John’s looked like a team in trouble during the first two months of the season, seemingly missing a true point guard, but Rick Pitino pulled his squad together and won a Big East title to cruise to a second consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance.
The Johnnies still don’t have a true point guard and don’t shoot the ball particularly well. That could limit their ceiling in the big dance and leave them vulnerable to an opening weekend loss once again. Pitino’s coaching prowess shouldn’t be underestimated, though, and it’s not a coincidence St. John’s has gotten better as the season has progressed.
Zuby Ejiofor is capable of taking over games and can do a little bit of everything, from his scoring ability to his shot-blocking skills. Bryce Hopkins, Oziyah Sellers and Dillon Mitchell are all seniors who have started to figure out how to play with one another, with Mitchell the x-factor. St. John’s is 10-1 when he scores in double figures, with the only blemish a one-point loss to Iowa State.
St. John’s rebounds the ball well, ranking top-30 in offensive rebounds, and the Johnnies are also top-40 in assist-to-turnover ratio despite the lack of a true point guard. When the shots are falling, this team is hard to beat. When they aren’t falling, results like a 72-40 loss to UConn are possible. While that might be an extreme case, the volatility of St. John’s makes Pitino’s group one of the more fascinating teams in the tournament.
- NET ranking: 20th
- KenPom ranking: 16th
- Quad 1 record: 3-5
- Quad 2 record: 12-0
- Quad 3 record: 9-1
- Quad 4 record: 3-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 44th
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 12th
Key players
Zuby Ejiofor, F, Sr. (6-9, 240): 16.3 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.1 bpg
Bryce Hopkins, F, Sr. (6-6, 220): 13.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.0 apg
Oziyah Sellers, G, Sr. (6-5, 185): 10.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.7 apg
Dillon Mitchell, F, Sr. (6-8, 205): 8.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 3.1 apg
Ian Jackson, G, So. (6-4, 190): 9.6 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 35.4% 3-pt
SN AWARDS: All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year
Northern Iowa (23-12, 11-9 in MVC)
Northern Iowa finished sixth in the Missouri Valley Conference, but the Panthers could be set up well to be competitive in the NCAA Tournament. Not only has coach Ben Jacobson been here before and won games in the big dance, but Northern Iowa has the kind of defense and slow pace that can throw teams completely out of rhythm much like Drake did in 2025.
The Panthers lead the nation with only 61.3 points allowed per game. Opponents shot a dismal 28.5 percent from 3-point range across 35 games this season and 40.7 overall. Only two teams scored more than 75 points against Northern Iowa all season.
So, why do the Panthers still have 12 losses? They have won 10 of their last 13 games, but a sluggish offense doomed them to a midseason slump. Northern Iowa isn’t inefficient, outside of poor marks from the free-throw line, but this team doesn’t play fast at all and doesn’t have much size to consistently score in the paint outside of sophomore big man Will Hornseth. The Panthers also lost a significant number of close games, with eight of their losses coming by six or fewer points. Those games count, but you could say they are within the margin of luck.
A look at Northern Iowa’s non-conference schedule is worthwhile. The Panthers gave St. Mary’s a scare on the road and went to overtime with Wichita State, which finished second in the American. They beat SoCon champion Furman by 16 and UC Irvine in overtime. The only team to score more than 76 points against Northern Iowa was Belmont – twice.
That doesn’t mean an upset looms – Northern Iowa’s offense has to at least show something for that to be possible – but the Missouri Valley Conference produces frequent upsets because its teams are battle-tested. After Drake got it done a year ago, Northern Iowa believes it has a chance.
- NET ranking: 72nd
- KenPom ranking: 71st
- Quad 1 record: 0-3
- Quad 2 record: 4-4
- Quad 3 record: 7-5
- Quad 4 record: 11-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 153rd
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 24th
Key players
Trey Campbell, G, Sr. (6-3, 170): 13.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.9 apg
Leon Bond III, G, Jr. (6-5, 200): 11.9 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 36.5% 3-pt
Will Hornseth, F, So. (6-8, 230): 11.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.2 apg
Ben Schwieger, G, Sr. (6-6, 185): 9.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.9 apg
Tristan Smith, F, Sr. (6-6, 235): 9.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.9 apg
SN EXPERT BRACKETS:DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)
St. John's vs. Northern Iowa prediction
Northern Iowa wasn't the favorite out of the Missouri Valley Conference, but the Panthers are pretty well suited to compete for an upset because they play terrific defense and have played close games against higher-level competition despite being 0-3 in Quad 1 games.
With that being said, this is a tough draw for Northern Iowa. Many believed St. John's should have been a 4-seed, and the Red Storm are a team that has only gotten better throughout the season due largely to Pitino's excellence as a coach. St. John's is set up well for a win here.
St. John's still doesn't have a true point guard, which feels like it's going to cost Pitino at some point, but it's hard to imagine the road ending here with the depth and defense the Red Storm have. Zuby Ejiofor will be far and away the best player on the floor when these two teams meet, and there is a clear size mismatch between these teams with St. John's in position to control the glass and have little trouble scoring in the paint.
St. John's still isn't a great shooting team, so some scoring droughts against a tough Northern Iowa defense are possible. The question, then, is whether the Panthers have the offense to take advantage of those droughts. Northern Iowa likely doesn't have the offensive talent to solve a tough St. John's defense, so it would take quite an off day from Pitino's offense for the Panthers to pull this off.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
History of 5 vs. 12 upsets in NCAA Tournament
History tells us the chances of at least one 12-seed pulling off an upset this year are strong. 12-seeds have a .356 winning percentage against 5-seeds, making an upset more likely than not in a given year.
In 2025, Colorado State and McNeese both won as 12-seeds, though Colorado State was favored in its game against Memphis. This year, no 12-seed is close to being favored.
Here's a look back at all 12 over 5 upsets since 2010:
YearResult2025Colorado State 78, Memphis 702025McNeese 69, Clemson 672024James Madison 72, Wisconsin 612024Grand Canyon 75, St. Mary's 662022Richmond 67, Iowa 632022New Mexico State 70, UConn 632021Oregon State 70, Tennessee 562019Murray State 83, Marquette 642019Liberty 80, Mississippi State 762019Oregon 72, Wisconsin 542017Middle Tennessee 81, Minnesota 722016Yale 79, Baylor 752016Little Rock 85, Purdue 83 (2 OTs)2014Stephen F. Austin 77, VCU 75 (OT)2014North Dakota State 80, Oklahoma 75 (OT)2014Harvard 61, Cincinnati 572013Oregon 68, Oklahoma State 552013California 64, UNLV 612013Ole Miss 57, Wisconsin 462012VCU 62, Wichita State 592012South Florida 58, Temple 442011Richmond 69, Vanderbilt 662010Cornell 78, Temple 65