March Madness Upset Predictions: Best Sweet 16 Picks for 2026
· Yahoo Sports
Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.
The second weekend of the NCAA Tournament is upon us, and an exciting opening weekend saw a No. 1 seed bite the dust, while another one narrowly escaped an historic first-round exit.
Visit salonsustainability.club for more information.
While there may only be one double-digit seed remaining, there’s still plenty of opportunity for a surprise result and an underdog victory.
Here are my top March Madness picks and upset predictions for the Sweet 16.
Our favorite March Madness upset picks for the Sweet 16
TeamOddsIowa moneyline+110St. John’s moneyline +230
No. 9 Iowa vs No. 4 Nebraska
South Region, Thursday @ 7:30 p.m. ET, TBS
The Iowa Hawkeyes and the Nebraska Cornhuskers have faced off twice this season, with the home team coming away victorious each time. The Cornhuskers had one of their worst offensive outputs of the entire season in Iowa's 57-52 win in Iowa City.
Oddly enough, they locked down Iowa’s interior offense and held the Hawkeyes to their second worst points-per-possession of the entire season in Lincoln. But the Hawkeyes dominated the glass, holding Nebraska to just two offensive boards with a +14 advantage overall, and forced a turnover on one of every five trips.
That’s the way the Hawkeyes can get the job done again on Thursday.
Vanderbilt nearly pulled off the victory over the Cornhuskers in a game where Nebraska had just five offensive rebounds from 23 missed shots. They also forced a turnover on nearly 19% of Nebraska’s possessions.
It’s how the Hawkeyes beat the Gators. They limited Florida to nearly 11 fewer possessions than average, controlled the glass, and forced 11 turnovers.
Nebraska doesn’t get to the line often, which limits the ability to get easy points against an Iowa team that plays extremely slow. If the Huskers don’t get second-chance opportunities and cough up the ball like they did against Vanderbilt, their tournament run will come to an end.
No. 5 St. John's vs No. 1 Duke
East Region, Day @ 7:10 p.m. ET, CBS
Bet against Rick Pitino in the Sweet 16 at your own peril.
There’s a reason the man has gone 12-1 in his career to open the second weekend of the tournament — and that lone defeat came against a Kentucky team his Louisville squad had already faced in 2014.
The St. John’s Red Storm’s biggest weakness this season was shooting from beyond the arc. While shooting just 32.8% in the opening two games isn’t anything special, the Red Storm hit double-digit treys in both games. They’d done that just six times all season.
More importantly, they’ve held six of their last eight opponents below 0.96 points per possession. They do a great job limiting drive-and-kick opportunities, one of the Duke Blue Devils’ primary methods of offensive attack, and force turnovers at a high rate.
The Blue Devils have been one of the worst teams in the tournament at taking care of the basketball and hitting outside shots. Much of Duke’s offensive output has come via second-chance opportunities, something St. John’s can limit.
Duke needed a second-half comeback to escape the first round. Their blowout win over TCU was a seven-point game with 10 minutes to go. This team is vulnerable, and Cameron Boozer hasn’t looked the same of late.
Pitino’s had multiple days to gameplan, and it’ll once again pay off as they knock off the No. 1 overall seed.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.