Tennessee baseball NCAA Tournament odds after 21-12 start, 4-8 in SEC
· Yahoo Sports
Tennessee baseball is in danger of missing the NCAA tournament unless it can fix an underperforming offense and a lead-blowing bullpen against a daunting schedule.
First-year head coach Josh Elander has expressed both confidence and urgency as the Vols (21-12, 4-8 SEC) head to No. 8 Mississippi State (26-7, 7-5) for a pivotal series.
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“It starts with me. I have to make sure that we’re putting them in a position to (close out SEC games),” Elander said after UT gave up 10 runs in the 12th inning in a 16-6 loss to LSU on April 5. “But (there's) a lot of baseball left, and we just need to hit the reset button and be ready to go.”
Tennessee has 23 regular-season games and the SEC tournament remaining to turn around its season. Game 1 against Mississippi State is April 10 (7 p.m. ET, SEC Network+). Game 2 is April 11 (7 p.m. ET, SEC Network+). Game 3 is April 12 (2 p.m., SEC Network+).
The Vols have lost five straight road games. They no longer gets votes in the top 25 polls. And they’re teetering on the edge of the midseason NCAA Tournament bubble.
Here is what’s on the line in UT’s series at Mississippi State.
Tennessee baseball NCAA Tournament projections
D1Baseball listed Tennessee among the last four teams to make the NCAA Tournament in its midseason projection, which was released April 1, before UT lost a home series to LSU. An updated projection likely would push the Vols out of the field of 64.
Baseball America had already dropped Tennessee out of the projected NCAA Tournament field before the LSU series.
That’s alarming because UT advanced to at least the NCAA super regional in each of the past five seasons under coach Tony Vitello, along with three College World Series appearances and the 2024 national title. Vitello became the manager of the San Francisco Giants, and Elander was promoted to head coach.
Historically, SEC teams with 14 conference wins usually make the NCAA Tournament. Teams with 13 conference wins occasionally make it. Tennessee has four SEC wins and 18 league games remaining. To reach the minimum 13-win mark, the Vols must go 9-9 and improve their RPI.
UT ranks No. 45 in RPI with a 2-3 record against Quad 1 teams and 1-3 record against Quad 2 teams. There are prime opportunities ahead to turn that around.
The Vols must win some SEC series down the stretch to make the NCAA Tournament, but that’s a tall order. They have No. 8 Mississippi State, No. 16 Alabama, No. 22 Kentucky, Ole Miss, No. 2 Texas and No. 15 Oklahoma remaining on their conference schedule.
How bad has Tennessee bullpen been?
The Vols have routinely started games strongly, but they’ve ended in disaster.
UT blew five-run leads in losses to Georgia, Vanderbilt and LSU in large part because the bullpen collapsed. The Vols lost on walk-off hits in all three losses to Vanderbilt, and they gave up 10 runs in the 12th inning in the series finale at LSU.
In SEC games, UT starting pitchers have a strong 2.52 ERA. But its relievers have a 6.42 ERA, squandering opportunities to win tight conference games.
“We got to make sure that when you come out of the bullpen, you compete with conviction instead of just fluttering pitches in there, especially in SEC lineups that can do damage,” Elander said. “And there has to be a belief that they can get it done together. With what we’ve been through, there’s definitely some scars we’re continuing to work through it.”
How much are Tennessee hitters struggling in SEC play?
Tennessee has a .227 batting average in SEC games, ranked 13th among 16 teams in the league. Its 68 runs scored rank eighth in SEC play, but 15 of those came in a single game in a loss to Vanderbilt.
Some of UT’s best hitters haven’t performed well in SEC games. Henry Ford is hitting .192 in league play. Despite hitting four home runs, Blaine Brown has a .216 average in SEC games. Tyler Myatt has a .185 average in SEC games, and all eight of his extra-base hits were in nonconference play.
UT will face a Mississippi State pitching staff that touts a 3.51 ERA in SEC games, ranked third in the conference. The Bulldogs have been very good at home with an 18-3 record at Dudy Noble Field.
Adam Sparks is the Tennessee beat reporter. Email [email protected]. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing atknoxnews.com/subscribe.
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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee baseball NCAA Tournament projections after starting 4-8 in SEC